2009 Fantasy Football Busts

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One of the key ways to win any fantasy football league is to identify those monumental busts. Avoiding them is as important as securing the next break out stud. Each year there are always several over-hyped, half-year wonders; identify them, avoid them. One of my main strategies is to never take a player with one of my first three picks that I feel isn’t a ‘sure-thing’. This year, I have identified a list of 5 players that are being taken in the first 3 or 4 rounds that I feel are going too high and could turn out to pay zero dividends compared to their ADP. Who will be this year’s Joseph Addai or Ryan Grant? Lets find out…

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5) Larry Fitzgerald, WR, AriL_fitzgerald

It may seem a little counter-intuitive to have last year’s playoff darling on my list of potential garbage men, but remember this list is about busts compared to ADP. I’ve seen Fitz go 5th overall in non PPR drafts more than any other player. I don’t even have Larry as the #1 WR this year, much less the 5th best player overall. After all, Fitz got half of his 12 TDs last season during the 4 games that Boldin was out. When Boldin is in, no one is targeted more by Warner than Anquan. You are much better off going with that sure-thing RB stud or Randy Moss in your first round.

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4) DeAngelo Williams, RB, CardeAngelo

No way this guy can be a bust, right? After all, he had 20 TDs, over 1500 rushings yards and was the #1 scorer in most league settings last year. What you might not realize that 15 of his 18 rushings TDs came in 7 of the last 8 games in 2008, including two 4-touchdown games. He fits the profile of a “half-year wonder”. Before 2008, his best season, by far, was his 700 yard, 4 TD campaign in 2007 where he played all 16 games. And according to our 2009 Strength of Schedule analysis, the Panthers have the 2nd hardest schedule in the NFL. He still has the most talented handcuff in the league in Jonathan Stewart. And he’s poised to have a year much worse than his current ADP of 7.1. With a top 7 pick you need a SURE THING, and I believe DeAngelo is not one.

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3) Pierre Thomas, RB, NOpierre-thomas

This guy carried many fantasy owners to glory in the second half of last season. With 9 scores in his final 6 games of ’09, Pierre Thomas was a top five back to end the season. But what was the common element in those games? An injured Reggie Bush. Before Bush went down, Thomas was less than a non-factor, with just 3 TDs in the first 9 games. Right now he has an ADP of 37, ahead of teammate Reggie Bush (74) and potential break out stud Kevin Smith (60). Pass on Pierre Thomas, especially if Aaron Rodgers (38) or Wes Welker (37) are still on the board.

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2) Antonio Bryant, WR, TBantonio-bryant

A lesser name than the rest of his peers on this list, Bryant is currently going 44th overall in most FF leagues; and for the life of me I can not figure out why. Granted, there are not many legit WR options going later in drafts other than Chad OchoCinco (50) and Eddie Royal (64), but with your 4th round pick, try going with a can’t-miss QB or high-upside RB. In his 7-year career, Bryant has logged just one season with 7+ TDs,  two season with 1000+ yards, and he has broken 70 receptions just once. Add that to the fact that he now has Byron Leftwich throwing him the ball, and you have a player that screams “BUST!” as loud as anyone (except for my next guy).

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1) Chris Johnson, RB, Tenchris-johnson

This is the definition of a potential sophomore slump. He currently has an ADP of 15 on most websites; just about right for the numbers he put up last season, but way too high for the potential bust status he has wrapped around his ankles. The mere fact that LenDale White had 15 TDs last season, should be reason enough to drop this one-year-wonder down into the RBBC draft area. But add to that all the bad luck sh*t talking he was doing in the off season, and you have a perfect 2009 busto candidate.

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One Response

  1. The first rb I selected last night was Pierre Thomas, so I certainly hope this is not the case. I think that Larry Fitzgerald is going to have another amazing year and solidify himself as the greatest wr in the nfl.

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